ACG – Modest demand recovery; expenses related to late VAT tax payments weigh on Q2 earnings – Earnings Flash
  • 2024-07-30T00:00:00
  • Company Research

ACG announced its H1 2024 results with net revenue of VND1.7tn (USD67.5mn; +4% YoY; 44% of our 2024F forecast) and NPAT-MI of VND200bn (USD7.8mn; +39% YoY; 38% of our 2024F forecast). In Q2 2024, net revenue was VND1tn (USD40.2mn; +48% QoQ, +6% YoY) and NPAT-MI was VND118bn (USD4.6mn; +45% QoQ, +10% YoY).

  • H1 2024 revenue rebounded modestly due to sluggish domestic sales, partially offset by solid exports recovery. H1 net revenue rebounded 4% YoY, largely driven by exports (20% of total sales; +34% YoY) and offset by domestic sales (80% of total sales; -1% YoY). Strong QoQ growth in both domestic and exports sales in Q2 is because Q1 is typically a low season for ACG.
    Although domestic sales remained sluggish due to a still-weak real estate market, we believe domestic sales already bottomed out in Q1, as Q2 YoY growth turned positive after five consecutive quarters of YoY decline. Per ACG, export orders are secured until December 2024, with the production line for export products operating at 110% capacity.
  • GPM continued its upward trend in Q2 2024, reaching 32.5%, attributed to both domestic and exports demand recovery. This marks the fifth consecutive quarter of GPM improvement since Q1 2023 (excluding Q4 2023)In Q2, the GPM of exports expanded to 30.6% from 24.7% in Q1 2024 and 24.1% in Q2 2023, which we attribute to ACG’s shift towards selling higher-margin products and reduced customer acquisition costs as adoption of ACG products increased.
  • H1 2024 SG&A expenses declined YoY: H1 2024 total SG&A expenses declined 15% YoY, with SG&A/revenue ratio narrrowing to 17.2% from 21.1% last year. In Q2, SG&A/revenue declined to 14.2% from 21.7% in Q1 2024 and 18.1% in Q2 2023. We attribute this development to (1) ACG having completed expanding its distribution network and (2) cost optimization efforts amid a challenging market.
  • “Other expenses” surged to VND52bn (USD2mn) in Q2 2024 due to late VAT tax payment-related expenses: During Q2 2024, ACG conducted a review of expenses incurred during 2014 to 2023 and excluded those with invoices not meeting the conditions for VAT deduction (i.e., not qualified for tax deductions). From our understanding, this review revealed that ACG had previously enjoyed tax deductions they were not eligible for, resulting in two significant expenses classified in “Other expenses”, including (1) repayment of non-deductible VAT of VND11.6bn (USD0.5mn) and (2) interest payment of VND42.6bn (USD1.7mn) for additional taxes accumulated over 2014-2023.

Overall, we foresee insignificant changes to our forecast for ACG’s EBIT as H1 2024 results came broadly in-line with our expectations and we anticipate H2 2024 demand to be stronger than in H1. However, we see downside risk to our NPAT-MI forecast due to the unexpected expenses related to the late VAT tax payment incurred in Q2 2024.

ACG’s H1 2024 results

VNDbn

Q2 2023

Q1 2024

Q2 2024

QoQ

YoY

H1 2023

H1 2024

YoY

2024F

H1 as % of 2024F

Net revenue

968

695

1,026

48%

6%

1,648

1,721

4%

3,902

44%

- Domestic

825

554

833

50%

1%

1,399

1,387

-1%

3,236

43%

- Direct exports

144

141

193

37%

34%

249

334

34%

667

50%

Gross profit

280

214

333

56%

19%

470

547

16%

1,195

46%

- Domestic

245

179

274

53%

12%

422

453

7%

1,035

44%

Direct exports

35

35

59

69%

71%

49

94

93%

160

59%

Selling expenses

-128

-112

-110

-2%

-15%

-264

-221

-16%

-529

42%

G&A expenses

-47

-39

-36

-7%

-23%

-84

-75

-10%

-170

44%

EBIT

104

63

187

195%

80%

122

251

105%

496

51%

Financial income

38

46

44

-4%

17%

78

90

15%

193

47%

Financial expense

-13

-10

-11

17%

-12%

-29

-21

-27%

-41

52%

Others

5

2

-52

N.M.

N.M.

10

-50

N.M.

13

N.M.

PBT

134

101

168

66%

25%

182

269

48%

661

41%

NPAT-MI

107

81

118

45%

10%

144

200

39%

529

38%

GPM

28.9%

30.8%

32.5%

 

 

28.5%

31.8%

 

30.6%

 

- Domestic

29.7%

32.3%

32.9%

 

 

30.1%

32.7%

 

32.0%

 

- Direct exports

24.1%

24.7%

30.6%

 

 

19.5%

28.1%

 

24.0%

 

SG&A/revenue

18.1%

21.7%

14.2%

 

 

21.1%

17.2%

 

17.9%

 

EBIT margin

10.8%

9.1%

18.3%

 

 

7.4%

14.6%

 

12.7%

 

EBITDA margin

13.5%

12.8%

20.7%

 

 

10.6%

17.5%

 

15.6%

 

NPAT-MI margin

11.1%

11.7%

11.5%

 

 

8.7%

11.6%

 

13.6%

 

Source: ACG, Vietcap

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